Predicting The Future Of The Business After Pandemic.
Since the corona pandemic hit the entire world, the business sector has contracted and one of them is Turkey and Malaysia.
Turkey could lower rates, BofA says
In contrast to a consensus call for tighter policy, Bank of America expects the Turkish central bank to lower rates on concerns about growth. Central Bank Governor Basci’s dovish comments recently may be hinting at this change in the central bank’s focus, says BofA’s Turker Hamzaoglu. He estimates the overnight rates corridor and the policy rate could each come down another 50bps in 2Q, on top of the surprise 100bps cut in the overnight lending rate last month.
As a result, the Turkish lira could be in for further weakness. The US dollar, which has been trading around TRY1.81 the past few weeks, recently at TRY1.8018, according to CQG.
MYR Outlook Solid Despite Political Risks – BBH says.
The outlook for the MYR is solid despite political risks, Brown Brothers Harriman writes in a note. “Looking at recent price action in USD/MYR, you wouldn’t think there is much political risk being priced in. We tend to agree,” it writes. However, with elections required within 60 days the house says “macro policies should remain virtually indistinguishable amongst the two opposing political forces.” Further, it says that Malaysia continues to enjoy strong fundamentals, noting solid GDP growth, the beginnings of a recovery in exports and a modest acceleration in industrial production growth.
“We think further ringgit gains are likely, and break of 3.07 would target the 62% (retracement) level near 3.0550. After that is the January low near 3.00. On the upside, a break back above 3.10 is needed to signal an improved USD outlook.” The USD/MYR is at 3.0790